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STL to AK and Back Again

by AngelaHutti from St.Louis

Last Post 6 hours Ago


Angela’s Corner: Aug. 10, 2008
Aug 10, 2008 | 11:44 AM
Category: Weather
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 Well, I personally love this weather. Northerly flow in the atmosphere means cooler and, for the most part, drier air here in St. Louis. It’s been interesting to watch that giant MCS move very slowly southeast through Kansas and Arkansas over the last 24 hours. Very impressive storms this morning in southern Arkansas. Anyway, a ridge of high pressure is building southward into the region…keeps our weather un-August like. Weak front moving through ahead of that front and that could fire off a few showers and storms south of St. Louis Sunday afternoon.
  From the good to the bad: a frustrating week for forecasting here in St. Louis. Over all the weather will be good, but there are a couple of chances for rain that are proving difficult to time out. A shortwave moves through on Tuesday to bring in the chance of showers and storms but the models are all over the place when it comes to timing. Will have to keep an eye on Tuesday/Wednesday forecast closely. Another chance of rain Friday into Saturday. Could be some strong/severe weather in St. Louis Friday into Saturday if current model forecast holds.
 Quick check of the tropics, show a couple of tropical waves coming off Africa in the Atlantic at the start of the week. Hurricane Hernan is slowly weakening in the Pacific.
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Member Comments Total Comments: 21
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jeanette read my blog view my photos
Aug 10, 2008 | 12:38 PM

I do too Angela.
We could use a good slow soaking rain but no storm's please.
reb333 view my photos
Aug 10, 2008 | 3:16 PM

We just got a little shower here in the east side of Belleville.
WebsterGroves read my blog view my photos
Aug 10, 2008 | 8:08 PM

As that low pressure dips in here Friday that could be quite a wet set up. This is the kind of system we'd be watching like crazy if it were winter. Oh well.
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
Aug 11, 2008 | 8:28 AM

Absolutely amazing morning for mid-August in STL. Beautiful fresh dry cool air. Gives our a/c's and electric bills a rest, too. Enjoy folks. People go to Canada, MN and the Rockies for this wonderful stuff.
WebsterGroves read my blog view my photos
Aug 11, 2008 | 6:59 PM

I agree, guy. My spirits have lifted as the temps/humidity has dropped. I've had the AC off since Thursday, which is unheard of in August. A very nice break indeed.

I believe the homicide rate has dropped as well.
PattiJo52 read my blog view my photos
Aug 11, 2008 | 9:42 PM

Another excellant night of sleeping with the windows open. Totally unbelievable for August in this area. I sure hope we don't pay with a bad winter! But for now....I am the envy of my relatives in the southern states as they have been cooking for a while. Enjoy while it last!
cooldog23 read my blog
Aug 11, 2008 | 10:12 PM

We never had an August like this b4, last year it was in the 100s and 90's. So how bad r the storms going to get on Friday? I wonder what kind of winter were going to have this year cause thats only 4 months away... Will we have lot of ice storms? or major snow storm ??
From
Jason k
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
Aug 11, 2008 | 10:51 PM

I'm loving sleeping with the windows open, too, PattiJo. Lots of crickets and even some frogs from a nearby ditch. Music to my ears as I go to sleep. I'm thinking of recording it for winter.

So how bad r the storms going to get on Friday?
Way too soon to tell, cooldog. Too many variables. Some question in my mind whether the rain will come Friday, Saturday, or even Sunday...if it develops at all.
PattiJo52 read my blog view my photos
Aug 11, 2008 | 11:45 PM

Guyatacomputer,
Lots of crickets here too, and I have a pond out back with the frogs. I am in the country and the birds here are enjoying this weather too, they sang all night. Just unbelievable. I woke up around 3am as a coyote howled and woke the dogs, but that was over in 10 minutes. The birds sang me back to sleep. I have only heard the birds all night like this one time before. A flock of geese came in, honking, around 7am. Glad they waited till then, as it was time to get up. They did not go to the pond, as they came to feed on the apples that were on the ground under the apple trees. They were quite noisy! The peacefull sleep was over! lol
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Aug 11, 2008 | 11:45 PM

Yeah, you can't beat this weather, luckily my forecast for the heat coming back was dead wrong. I apologize, I guess the term "no doubt" shouldn't be used 10+ days out when you're talking about weather, lol. The teleconnections proved to be useless this time around(especially the AO and NAO), even the trusty EPO! It is a bit less accurate during the summer months, especially when it's in a stagnant positive phase. The models have also been next to useless at times in this crazy August pattern.

Speaking of crazy, this apparent cut-off low everyone has been talking about is about as crazy as it gets! Dave and Webster said it, this is like watching a November/December bowling ball, only during the summer! I was a bit skeptical yesterday, when there was more disagreement between models, and the idea had just been picked up, but today gives me more confidence that this will occur, at least to some extent. Regaining it's reputation and giving more confidence to this, the EPO signaled this one well, with a steady drop into negative values centered around the 2nd or so, which telegraphs the system into this weekend, and possibly hanging around early next week. This has the potential to be a prolific rain and cloud producer, and would really keep daytime temps at bay, maybe even mid 70s! I'm not going to try to nail any specific details or timing at this point, but this should be a fairly slow moving system(potentially affecting our area from Friday to Wednesday or so), and that it COULD mean trouble for the Ohio Valley/Eastern US if this really slows to a crawl, and a t
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Aug 11, 2008 | 11:47 PM

tropical system can get absorbed into it when it moves East of us, although it should be accelerating by that point.

I did end up taking observations last Tuesday(sorry I didn't get back right away and let you know how that went, but the storm that came through knocked our power out all night, and we lost our internets connection for quite a few days, and I've been busy since) at work, and the dewpoint readings came w/i a degree compared to the KALN station's obs(78-79*). It looks like the lower 80s readings they had recorded on Monday weren't out of the question at all. If you were wondering about how the storm affected us up here, it was a significant event. We had more damage from this one than the 7.19.06 derecho, bringing countless trees(many of which were on houses) and powerlines/poles down, and knocking power out for over a day in some cases. I've heard reports of entire groves of trees downed, and I've been hearing chainsaws non-stop since. Nasty stuff. Of course, we didn't get any hail :p

Take it easy, and enjoy this amazing weather - it's not very often that we get a stretch like this in August!
dana_bl1 read my blog
Aug 12, 2008 | 2:10 AM

does any body have any ideas on this fall or winter yet. i know it is very early still just wondering is summer has been cooler then normal.
WebsterGroves read my blog view my photos
Aug 12, 2008 | 8:57 AM

Will Dave do a Fall forecast?
Peagcu read my blog
Aug 12, 2008 | 10:05 AM

Can't wait for a fall forecast....so I can see what is not going to happen this fall, LOL
snowman99 read my blog
Aug 12, 2008 | 1:55 PM

yes. at the end of this month he'll do one
snowman99 read my blog
Aug 12, 2008 | 1:59 PM

Hmmm...I guess the powers that be allowed me back on. Thanks.
Anyway, later this week could be quite wet and cool, and it could last for a few days.
I do believe by this time next week there will be some sort of hurricane threat to Florida or maybe the SE coast of the US. There are a couple of systems trying to develop and the first one is looking pretty health today. If this system does develop and move towards the US it could even slow out cutoff low down even more, but we'll just have to see what happen in the next 5-8 days. Could get wild in the tropis for the next couple weeks.
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
Aug 13, 2008 | 10:42 PM

To answer a question from earlier in the week I'm looking at the models and I'm not seeing any really HEAVY rain for metro STL. It looks like most of that is going to stay to the west and south of us, giving Spfld, MO Joplin and Branson another major soaking, which they don't need.

What I am seeing is an extended period of clouds with an occasional shower moving through part of the area. I don't see that we'll be getting large lines of rain coming through soaking the whole area. It'll probably be more scattered showers or occasional t-showers moving through the area. Individually they won't amount to much, but cumulatively any given spot could get a pretty good soaking over time. Expect the humidities to be up to more typical STL levels, but with lots of clouds the temps won't be.

What's not clear to me is how long this pattern will stay. Right now it looks like at least until Wednesday of next week. But with the tropical system off the East Coast it could really block up the flow and our system could possibly stay longer. This would all go out the window if we get something tropical to develop in the Gulf and move northward it might give our system something to latch on to and move it.

Winter - Peagcu I'm with you. Somebody break out a dart board!
jeepers4559 read my blog view my photos
Aug 14, 2008 | 8:10 AM

This August has just been, well, crazy. Hit our four year mark here and 2007 was the nastiest August I've seen thus far. (Didn't that month last about six weeks? I was just plain ugly and miserable.) Now this year, at the risk of jinxing the whole thing, has been lovely on the whole. Yeah, a few nasty days but it's like normal August lasted less than a week and it turned into this? I wore JEANS yesterday and wasn't hot. Jeans in STL in August? Could it turn really nasty in September? Has that ever happened around here? I don't know the history of the place, so all I have are questions in this area.

I'm intensely curious as to what is going to happen this fall, but even more so about this winter.
AngelaHutti read my blog view my photos
Aug 15, 2008 | 1:55 PM

Well, if you remember I put the following clarifier in the blog above, "if the model forecast holds". Well it didn't, Wet weather stays well west this weekend (that's a lot of w's) and St. Louis will enjoy another nice weekend! Enjoy!
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
Aug 16, 2008 | 11:29 AM

Another observation about this summer that occurred to me while cutting grass this morning.

I can't remember a summer in STL where, by August 15, the yard isn't showing some signs of heat stress, or getting a bit dried out even if I've better watering. I have mostly zoysia and while it's better than most, it will still lose some of it's green brilliance and look a bit drab by this time unless I've been watering almost daily.

This summer the yard looks GREAT. And I haven't even gotten the sprinklers out of the garage.
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AngelaHutti

Born and raised in St. Louis, I'm living my dream of being a meteorologist. I came to Fox 2 in October 2006 after a few wonderful years doing weekend weather for KTVA CBS 11 in Anchorage, AK. Look for me weekend mornings on Fox 2 and at every Cardinals game I can possibly get to!

Member Since: 11/15/2006


 

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