STL to AK and Back Again

I think we already have a tropical depression that will soon be a storm down there in the Caribbean.

Looks like Gustav could be a problem for the US Gulf in about 7 days.

O boy here go the oil prices im sure :(

Five Day Cone:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/1441
12.shtml?5day#contents

TS Force Windspeed Probabilities:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/1441
12.shtml?tswind120#contents

Gustav track has changed...now look out Jamaica, Cuba, and the Gulf.

No one knows BLEEP strong Gustav will be at landfall, no one knows where it will make landfall. Basically anywhere along the Gulf coast is threatened especially in the central coast region like Louisiana and Mississippi, but that could very easily change. Intensity is anyone's guess chances are it'll increase to a cat 4 or so but possibly weaken before landfall, it could be anywhere from 80mph to 150 mph, we'll have a better idea in about 4 -5 days.

Latest statement.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO GUSTAV INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999
MB AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF ABOUT 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM
WEAKENING...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...LIKELY
TONIGHT. STILL...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING ROBUST
STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
THAT FORECAST ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO CRAWL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 300/03. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN 2-3 DAYS...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...TAKING GUSTAV OVER OR VERY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY DAY 5...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CUR

oo oo wait for it i think i heard the wheels of the wall street people spining.. yep oil is gonna move up again...

Looking down the road Gustav may also have implications for STL for precip potential. It certainly wouldn't be a hurricane by the time it would get this far inland but we could get a could dump of rain.

On another note Glen Zimmerman said he was looking at the long term outlooks and he said there is a possibility that in two weeks we could have highs in the 70's and lows in the 40's. While it hasn't happened yet something like that could certainly set the table for an early fall if it persists.

Definitely watching Gustav closely. Current models do bring the storm up from the Gulf across the Midwest. Also, T.D. 8 has now become Trop. Storm Hannah. Northern Bahamas in its path.