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by AngelaHutti from St.Louis

Last Post 1 day, 17 hours Ago


Angela’s Corner: Sept. 7, 2008
Sep 7, 2008 | 11:08 AM
Category: Weather
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 Wild week of weather here in St. Louis with something for everybody. After a cool weekend, Monday will bring a return to summer with warmer temps and higher humidity. A cold front will sweep through the area on Monday afternoon and that means showers and thunderstorms for the region. Some of the storms could be strong during the afternoon/evening hours on Monday.

 Then things go quiet again for a couple of days with sunshine and highs in the upper 70’s. By Thursday though there are a lot of questions. A front will be pushing in but models have been all over the place with the timing of its passing. On Saturday, it looked like rain Thursday night. But when I got in Sunday morning, it was looking more and more like Friday would be wet. That’s what concerns me. The latest track of Hurricane Ike takes it inland along the Texas-Louisiana border late Friday. If it curves north, Gulf moisture may meet up with this front and we could see heavy rains again around St. Louis the beginning of next weekend.

  Speaking of Ike, currently the Cat. 4 storm is pulling away from the Turks and Caicos Islands. Next in its path is the Bahamas and Cuba. The Florida Keys could be hit hard as well. The storm should lose some punch over Cuba, but regain strength as it enters the Gulf Of Mexico. We have to keep a close eye on this storm as it heads west.

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Member Comments Total Comments: 138
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rosie read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 12:18 PM

im so glad i dont live in the south, God help them
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 3:37 PM

The NHC is very concerned about Ike:
"SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA
G-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS."

I don't like Ike, the models are trending towards the Western/NW gulf, and the EURO and GFS have Houston written all over this. Could this be the one? The pattern once this gets into the Gulf looks very supportive to re-strengthen it into a major hurricane. If this moves into that part of the Gulf, this could also be another huge rain-maker for our area. Ike is currently going through an eyewall replacement cycle, and should remain a CAT 4 as it approaches Cuba.

Rsn, the models are still showing a chance of rain on Friday and Saturday, especially early in the day on Friday - but they are still all over the place w/ this complex pattern. I still think there's a good chance you'll stay relatively dry both days, especially Saturday, so I think you're in better shape than you could be looking at some current forecasts out there. Just keep in mind that the best chance is early on Friday.

Tomorrow could very well be a severe wx day. The setup is starting to look pretty impressive, and if we don't get really clouded up by the complex that will be moving NE out of the Central Plains into NW MO/S IA tonight and into tomorrow afternoon, we could really see some nasty storms. We seem to be in the "sweet spot" between the richer moisture to the South, and the stronger shear/height falls to the North. We should see
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 3:41 PM

the effects of both, and if conditions are right, we could see some supercells early on that would likely transition into bowing segments. Depending on the location of the outflow/s from the NW MO/S IA complex, we could see some tornadoes tomorrow if supercell structure persists into the late afternoon and evening.
Peagcu read my blog
Sep 7, 2008 | 4:07 PM

Houston, another big town on the coast that is in a precarious position. I have heard they have better emergency procedures there for evacuating, but that is to be seen. That is a huge metro area.
rsn25c
Sep 7, 2008 | 4:23 PM

Thanks Brnt.

I appreciate your input. Im keeping a positive mind as my wife-to-be is stressing a little about it.
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 5:02 PM

Noticed something looking at the PSU Tropical E-wall - Ike is detouring the upwelled and cooled waters in the Bahamas(you guys were right, it wasn't a BIG difference, but there was cooling noted), but is headed towards some WARM waters off the TX coast. I've got a bad feeling about this storm.
Here's the SST chart from accuweather:
Photobucket
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 5:07 PM

No prob Rsn. Keeping a positive mind is about all you can do! Can't do anything about the weather, that's for sure, unless you hire a cloud seeding company(better not mention that to your wife :)
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 5:16 PM

I sure hope they've improved evacuation procedures after the Rita debacle. Remember all those people camping out on the interstates?
snowman99 read my blog
Sep 7, 2008 | 5:53 PM

I think if Ike stays over Cuba for 36 hours as predicted it's going to emerge as a tropical storm, maybe a weak one at that. The inner core will probably be decimatd. It's going to take a long time for it to get going again, not impossible, just going to be a long arduous process for Ike when he gets into the Gulf. We shall see, it's going to be an interesting week.
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 8:18 PM

If it is back to TS, Snowman, then the next bit of drama will be how quickly and how much will it re-intensify. The Gulf will have had more than a week to calm since Gustav, and the western part hasn't anything stir up the colder water for a month.

Fill up your gas tanks, folks. The price of oil is about to go up again.
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 10:29 PM

If this thing can emerge from Cuba w/ at least some of the core intact(unlikely if it traverses the length of Cuba which is what is expected), I think this is a likely candidate for explosive development over the Gulf. The loop current right now is basically a broken band of very warm eddies across the Central Gulf, and all the way into the TX coast. If the core gets obliterated, it may take some time to get it's act together, but considering the number of eddies across the Central and Western Gulf, and the supportive atmospherics, this thing could really take off. It's got time and distance on it's side as well. Climatology also favors this. Alot of powerful hurricanes have been "come-back kids", especially Gulf storms - Dennis in 2005 is a perfect example. I'm afraid that alot of people may not take this as seriously as they should, because of the under-performance of previous storms this year. An anti-Rita so-to-say.
Loop current:
Photobucket
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 10:56 PM

Thought I'd post the STL disco from this afternoon, I think Britt did a great job dissecting the setup not only for tomorrow, but late in the week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
621 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/247 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008/
MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. STILL WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS AS IT`S SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND QUICKER SURFACE
FROPA TOMORROW AGREES BETTER WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET AND HAS BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN THE NAM.

HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF TSRA OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING AS STRIPE OF 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
PUSHES NWD ACROSS THE CWA ON NOSE OF BROAD LOW LEVEL JET THAT
EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCAPES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG BY 12Z OVER CNTRL MO. BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA
WILL COME TOMORROW AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA WILL LIE UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES JET STREAK. GFS MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PART OF THE THE CWA LOOK
REASONABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30KTS OVER
THE SRN PART OF THE CWA TO 50KTS OVER THE NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SUPERCELLS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PART OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NRN PART OF THE CWA TOMORROW
EVENING AS SYSTEM WILL HAVE

BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 10:57 PM

A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN KICK IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE A REFLECTION OF THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE BASED ON
PREFERENCE OF THE GFS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW
QUICKLY A TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE ECWMF KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES LONGER AND
DOESN`T BRING IT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY/EARLY
NEXT SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS WHICH BRINGS IT
ACROSS ABOUT A DAY EARLIER. COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT EACH MODEL
EXHIBITS SIGNIFICANT CONTINUITY PROBLEMS AND THAT THERE IS NO
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT FAVORS EITHER
ONE. DECIDED TO FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND STALLS IT OVER US NEXT WEEKEND AS IT
BECOMES ORIENTED TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS REQUIRES LOWERING POPS ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASING POPS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
BASED ON HPC AND PERSISTENCE.

BRITT
AngelaHutti read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 11:03 PM

Gulf is just prime right now for storm development. Thanks BRTN for posting the graphic showing the warm waters.
BobBobbyRobert25 read my blog view my photos
Sep 7, 2008 | 11:05 PM

just wanted to say hello to everyone. It's been months since my last post! I do however check in from time to time when I have time! lol

My little girl is going to be 5 months already!!! She's growing fast.


Anyways, I to agree with you guys that Hurricane Ike could be the strongest this year so far for the U.S. I am also looking forward to some severe weather tomorrow. Lets only hope.

September weather only makes me think of the Fall! God I love it. Which also means that winter is just around the corner :-) take care
dana_bl1 read my blog
Sep 8, 2008 | 12:12 AM

hey, when do we set the clocks back an hour. I love this cool weather. I can't wait for winter.
reb333 view my photos
Sep 8, 2008 | 9:23 AM

Time change is on Nov. 2
Peagcu read my blog
Sep 8, 2008 | 10:39 AM

Looks like Ike may be getting back over water sooner than expected. Looking a satellite it appears it may get back over water shortly if the WNW movement expected doesn't occur shortly.
deerhunter0821 read my blog
Sep 8, 2008 | 10:42 AM

have you all posted your predictions on pattijos blog
Peagcu read my blog
Sep 8, 2008 | 11:01 AM

NHC has noted the continued W track and now has Ike moving back over water shortly. They are not backing away from the 5 day target....yet. It still looks like Houston is under the gun.
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AngelaHutti

Born and raised in St. Louis, I'm living my dream of being a meteorologist. I came to Fox 2 in October 2006 after a few wonderful years doing weekend weather for KTVA CBS 11 in Anchorage, AK. Look for me weekend mornings on Fox 2 and at every Cardinals game I can possibly get to!

Member Since: 11/15/2006


 

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