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by Cindy_Fitzgibbon from Dedham

Last Post 6 days, 4 hours Ago


Wet Summers ... Bad Winters?
Aug 14, 2008 | 10:16 AM
Category: Weather
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Hello! Sorry I haven't blogged in a while. The learning curve with our new weather graphics system has been a sharp one for me!

So, pretty much everyone I've talked to is FRUSTRATED with our cool, wet summer- and now quite a number of people have been wondering what it means for this winter. I, in fact, just got another e-mail about it this morning. So I thought I would share my response with you in case you've been wondering, too. Here's my response to Chuck from Templeton's question about what our summer weather will mean for this coming winter.

Hi Chuck,

You're not the first one to ask this question! The short answer is: nothing. I've been trying to find a correlation between wet summers and bad winters in New England and can't seem to find one. None of our snowiest winters seem to correspond to our wettest summers from what I've seen so far.

If the pattern we've been in (persistent trough in the jet stream over the Northeast) doesn't change, then sure, we'll have a colder and wetter conditions hanging on, too, but there are no signs pointing to that right now.

There does, however, seem to be a larger than normal build up of cold air and ice in the arctic, and that, combined with lingering La Nina to neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions, may contribute to a colder and snowier winter. I guess we'll have to wait and see.


The official winter outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is calling for ABOVE normal temps and normal precipitation here in the Northeast for Dec Jan and Feb. Here's a link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/lon
g_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

In the meantime, SUMMER IS NOT OVER YET. The jet stream looks to get 'unstuck' and change in the next 5-10 days, bringing us more seasonable weather.

August is making a comeback.

Take Care!

Cindy F.

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Member Comments Total Comments: 15
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Mr_Ozone read my blog view my photos
Aug 14, 2008 | 2:09 PM

Hi Cindy,
Cool summer? Maybe cool August. Both June and July averaged aove normal. As for wet summers and harsh winters. There is only one I will refer to - 1977 or was it 76? 76 coincided with sunspot minimum. Coincidentally, the sun is lingering in minimum so maybe a colder snowier winter than we've been accustomed. The last several winters have been jokes! Come on global cooling! Man that sun is hot to the skin!
Graham_Cracker read my blog view my photos
Aug 15, 2008 | 9:32 AM

Cindy,

Ya know, I really hope we get BURIED in snow this winter. I love snowy winters. We live in New England...anyone who doesn't like the snow should follow the birds to Florida.
I spent my teen-aged years living in Maine where we loved to ski, snowmobile, ice-skate...and I feel incredibly blessed to have experienced all of that. I can still feel the crisp winter air atop Titcomb Hill in Farmington; as well as Saddleback Mountain in Rangely. I didn't go to Sugarloaf as much as others did...too yuppie for me. I went skiing to SKI...not to show off my gear (and I had all top-notch stuff!)
Bring on a REAL NEW ENGLAND WINTER, I say.
Cindy_Fitzgibbon read my blog view my photos
Aug 15, 2008 | 10:41 AM

Farmington, Maine huh Graham_Cracker... have you ever driven thru Madison a few minutes from there? If you were blinking at the time you might have missed it- but I spent a lot of time there as a kid as my grandparents lived there. Yes... winters are different up there- especially in that part of Maine.
Mr Ozone... you're right we haven't had a lot of snow the past couple of winters. Be careful what you wish for though- just a few winters back 2004-2005 we kept getting hit and ended up with 86.6" for the season in Boston. That winter ranked at #4 for the snowiest winters beating out the infamous winter of 1977-78 when we had 85.1" for the season. The snowiest winter on record in Boston though as you may remeber was 1995-96.... with 107.6". I was actually forecasting in North Dakota of all places that year watching you all get clobbered repeatedly. At least I didn't have to shovel it!
-C
Janine_L read my blog
Aug 15, 2008 | 2:02 PM

I for one am hoping for a mild, snow free winter. I'd be happy with snow only on Christmas. I know that's a stretch but I can
dream!
BrooklineRSfan read my blog
Aug 15, 2008 | 5:28 PM

Hi Cindy,

In that NWS prediction for temp and precip for the upcoming winter months, I noticed a good chunk of the country is expected to have temps above normal. Would that mean the jet stream is predicted to remain zonal or high up into Canada? I'm reading a lot about ENSO on the NOAA site, very interesting stuff that I'd love to get into but alas, work is done and it's time to go home for the [sunny!] weekend. More about it next week...

-Tony

PS: we think you're doing brilliantly with the new weather graphics, it actually looks like a lot of fun!
Graham_Cracker read my blog view my photos
Aug 16, 2008 | 5:20 PM

K, Cindy, I typed a response to you that apparently isn't going to be posted for some unknown reason.

But to briefly re-iterate, I went to summer-school in Madison. Do you ever still visit Madison? ...Or Maine?
I make frequent trips to Rockland, Brewster, Camden, Thomaston, and Portland. I'm also planning on making some trips to Rangeley, Wilton, and (of course) Farmington in the coming year.
tem123 read my blog
Aug 16, 2008 | 7:07 PM

Well, I would rather have cool or normal summers than the heat I had to deal with when I lived in Texas from 1982-97. The wet summer, I can do without as my sinuses are acting up.
kayleisnana read my blog view my photos
Aug 16, 2008 | 11:56 PM

Cindy--I would be thrilled if we had a mild winter. When I was younger I enjoyed the winters, however, as I am getting up in years, they are no longer as much fun as they used to be; now they seem to be an awful lot of work. Also--a question for you, Cindy--Why does Worcester seem to get hit so much harder than other surrounding areas? I live approximately one mile from the Worcester Airport, and our winters are absolutely horrible! Are you familiar with this area? I'm just curious if you have an explanation for this. Thanks! Donna from Worcester
Mr_Ozone read my blog view my photos
Aug 17, 2008 | 2:52 PM

Oh Cindy, I forgot to mention that this so-called buildup up of ice and cold is not abnormal. If it were, we'd be getting refreshing summer polar air masses by now which we haven't seen all summer!
Mr_Ozone read my blog view my photos
Aug 18, 2008 | 4:20 PM

and another, thing . The melt season in the Arctic typically doesn't end until late September. I don't what you mean by ice buildup. Could be the wind moving what ice is left.
NorthernObserver read my blog
Aug 18, 2008 | 4:57 PM

One thing is for sure. There is NO drought this summer. In fact I haven’t heard of one town proposing a ban on watering. LOL!
BrooklineRSfan read my blog
Aug 19, 2008 | 1:49 PM

Cindy,

Looking at this Pacific surface temp map, the anomoly appears to indicate the fading La Nina towards the beginning signs of a small El Nino (if my Spanish is correct, "un pequito El Nino"!) with the blossoming higher temps off the western South American coast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitori
ng/enso_update/sstanim.shtml

In addition, this data would also indicate the latest La Nina episode as coming to an end, but like you said, judging by the previous years, there's no evidence that an El Nino is around the corner this winter:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitori
ng/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

I believe the last "big" La Ninas (1954-56, 1973-7, 1998-2001) have resulted in snowier winters (higher amounts of precip in general) in the years following.

Bottom line is: Please let's not have too much snow this winter!!!
Graham_Cracker read my blog view my photos
Aug 19, 2008 | 1:49 PM

Wow. I can't believe some of the omissions made by this website. They defy all logic and common sense. Unbelievable.
Mr_Ozone read my blog view my photos
Aug 20, 2008 | 3:02 PM

My apologies Cindy. We got our first taste of refreshing cpa all summer yesterday and continuing today. It looks like there's ice buildup in the Arctic after all. There actually is more ice in general compared to last year at this time. I am expecting a colder, snowier winter. Come on global cooling! BTW did I mention there was a white Xmas last year, locally? The trend is unmistakeable!
critter171 read my blog
Aug 21, 2008 | 1:05 AM

Now that we had alot of sereve thunderstorms is is possible to get alot of blizzards this year?

Just a thought.
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Cindy_Fitzgibbon

You can catch my forecasts weekdays from 5-9am on the FOX 25 Morning News.

Member Since: 11/20/2006


 

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