Kevin_Lemanowicz's Blog

A couple different advisories in place through Tuesday morning.  Much of New Hampshire and northern Worcester county are in a frost advisory.  Southwest New Hampshire, eastern Vermont, and much of western Massachusetts are in a freeze warning area.  Either way, it sounds cold, but there is a difference.

A frost advisory means that there is the strong possibility of a widespread frost.  A frost can kill tender vegetation, so you are advised to protect those plants by covering them or, if possible, bring them inside.  Keep in mind, temperatures are typically observed at eye level, or about 5-6 feet off the ground.  The temperature at the ground can actually be a few degrees colder.  That means the observed temperature does not have to drop to freezing, 32 degrees Fahrenheit or 0 Celsius, for frost to form on the ground.  That would be where a freeze warning comes in.

A freeze warning means that a widespread killing frost is likely.  Here, temperatures will drop below freezing.  This effectively brings an end to the growing season. 

Even if you are not in a frost advisory area Tuesday morning, you should take care of anything you absolutely don't want to take a chance with growing outside.  There can still be spots of frost, even if there is no advisory, as it is going to be a cold night. 

Stay warm.

kpl

Maria already took "Thank You" as her title, so I had to go international.

This past weekend is one of the most important of the year for FOX 25.  For several years, we've had a partnership with the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, more commonly known as JDRF.  I remember the first meeting in our "old" building in a conference room on the second floor.  It is there I first met Heidi Daniels, the fireball in charge of all of this.  She is tireless, and she and her staff deserve so much of our thanks for all they have done.  It was soon after that meeting that the station decided that there was no doubt that JDRF and FOX 25 would be a perfect match.  We haven't stopped since.  The big event is the walk that was held this past Saturday at the Hatch Shell and around the Charles River.  It was a pleasure to meet many new faces, and to see many of the same faces we see every year.  Of course, this is just one event we participate in with JDRF, but it is the most public.  The generosity of those involved is overwhelming, and the collective heart shown by those with this disease, thier families and friends, is beyond words. 

Congratulations on a successful event, and thank you for letting us be a part of it all.

So you all know, A.J. did indeed get married Saturday afternoon.  The wedding was a blast.  I'll leave it for him to blog about further. 

Make sure you check out the JDRF pictures... I'm the gut with the FOX 25 Hat on.

kpl

Temperatures were a bit below average for the date, Friday.  It felt even cooler with all the clouds and a brisk wind.  However, I didn't feel like it was terribly cold.  Then, I came to work and saw several pictures and one video like this...

 

 

Yes, that is snow on Mount Lafayette in New Hampshire.  Franconia Notch recorded snow.  An inch fell at the summit of Cannon Mountain.  In Vermont, Killington had a dusting.  Farther north, Sugarbush had 2"!  JJ Toland at Sugarbush says that they aren't starting normal winter operations for about another 50 days.  This early snow, though, is giving them hope for a great season ahead.

I love to ski, but I'd like to get to Thanksgiving first.  Are you ready for the snow?  Hope to see you at the JDRF Walk For A Cure Saturday morning.  We will be at the Hatch Shell on the Esplanade in Boston at 10 a.m.

kpl

You'll hear much about it the rest of this week, and for good reason.  Saturday, while always an important day on your calendar for whatever you have going on... football, soccer, birthday parties, travel, date night, whatever... takes on extra meaning this week. 

The Hatch Shell will be the place to be in the morning.  We'll kick off the 2008 Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation Walk for a Cure at 10:30 a.m.  I'll be on stage saying a few words, but will be happy to be brief and give Maria and Mark the limelight.  We'll then go to the front of the line and lead you walkers through the starting "gate".  I'll meet you all half-way around with water and treats.  This is a huge fundraiser for the charity.  You will likely meet some of the children growing up with this dreadful disease.  The bravery and smiles will astound you.  It is an inspirational day to be sure.

Later in the day, it is off to A.J.'s wedding.  He is getting hitched to a wonderful young lady, and I'm looking forward to the party!  Congratulations to both.

So, what about the weather... well, I still believe there may be some clouds to contend with, though there will likely be plenty of sun.  I don't think anyone will be walking in the rain, whether it be around the Charles or down the aisle.  Temperatures will be cool, likely in the 60s.  It may be only in the 50s at walk time, so dress in layers and peel them off.

See you at the Hatch Shell!

kpl

Well, it was better than the weekend.  That's the best I can say about Monday's weather.  The front cleared the area, but the disturbance in the upper levels of our atmosphere did not.  That kept the clouds and sprinkles around all day.  Sure, you may have seen a litte sun, but we have to do better.

Tuesday will be better.  Althought there will likely be some fog to burn off, the sun should win out.  Problem is, another front is already on the way.  Worse, another upper-level low will be spinning into New England.  Much like we saw a lot of during the summer, this system comes with cold air aloft.  That allows more lift, more clouds, and more showers.  It will lift out of here this weekend, but the cool air will work its way to our doorsteps. 

Keep the umbrellas handy Wednesday and Thursday, just in case.  No washouts, but always a chance.  By Friday, make sure that sweatshirt is ready.  Good thing the Sox start in California.

Get rid of the rain and I actually really enjoy the first crisp autumn weather.  How about you?  I've posted some pictures from my visit to a cranberry bog.  Check them out and feel free to comment.

kpl

With all apologies to Barry Manilow... in fact, if you were expecting to see a link to me singing the song, forgetaboutit.

I awakened to rain Friday morning, as expected, and my car is still wet outside as I write this late Sunday night.  This weekend defines "washout".  I hope you found things to do.  Here are some observations from this gully-washer weekend.

Soccer practice apparently isn't important enough to go on (Friday evening), but nothing stops the games (Saturday morning).  I love my son, but he isn't going to play for the Revs.  This was just miserable.  Come on!  These kids don't even keep score, yet they MUST play in the rain?

Birthday parties have to be flexible on the fly.  This wasn't directly my issue, but the Wendells up the street.  My little guy reported there Saturday afternoon for fun and a sleepover.  I dropped him off, only to see him change into his swimming shirt and shorts.  This wasn't to swim, though they would later do that, but to go outside to play football in the rain and mud.  I almost wish I could have stayed.  Well done Wendells!

The Capital Grille makes the best steak in the universe (I think) with that Kona steak.  If you know of a different one, please let me know as I MUST try it.

Except for Pesky's number retirement Sunday afternoon, I would have been angry if I had bought Sox tickets for the season-ending Yankee series for gobs of money thinking they would be playing for something a month ago.  Anybody want to sell me playoff tickets?  No, we don't get any from FOX. 

Does anyone else just want to stay in bed on days like these?  Perhaps I'm just lazy.  Although, the wrestling matches with the boys this weekend indoors would rival the WWE. 

Finally, I closed the pool on Thursday.  That always makes me sad, as it is then that I truly say goodbye to summer.  This weekend made me feel better about it. 

On to apple picking.  Can anyone recommend a favorite orchard with some activities perhaps.  I've found bushels on line, but hard to tell from that.

kpl

This just in from the National Weather Service.  Seems the ocean is colder this year.  This is something you likely won't hear in the typical media outlets, but the NWS calls it like they see it.  No politics here. 

National Weather Service: SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR ARCTIC WATERS AS WATER TEMPS DROP 8° IN 2008 – September 22, 2008

Excerpt: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ALASKA CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEA COASTS ARE 2 TO 8 DEGREES CELSIUS COLDER THIS YEAR THAN AT THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR. [...] SIGNIFICANT ICE WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE ALASKA COAST NORTH OF 70N WITHIN THE NEXT 10 TO 14 DAYS.

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/marfcst.php?fcst=FZAK80PAFC

This does NOT mean the globe is cooling as some believe it is, but the evidence is mounting.  It'll be interesting to see if earlier icing and colder temperatures seeping southward this fall will mean anything for our winter.  I sure think so.

kpl

Most of you reading this are likely from New England.  So, I figure you likely understand how changeable the weather can be.  Good so far?  Well, that being the case, I assume most of you look at the 5-day forecast and figure that by day 5, you have to keep tabs as it can certainly change in the next couple of days.  Tonight, I received an email from a viewer telling me to stop talking about the possibility of rain this coming weekend, as it is 5 days away.  He said the 5-day is a joke.  I respect that opinion, but I also know the vast majority of you like the 5 day more than you like watching me.  It's ok, I know.  Tonight, I am looking 5 days out and seeing the POSSIBILITY of rain this weekend.  Much of this hinges on how the tropics act with a disturbance currently near Puerto Rico.  This could change, but it is a possibility.

Does that help you in your planning, or does the uncertainty bug you?  Do you want the 5-day there? 

Talk to me.

kpl

A jury in England recently returned a verdict that I still can't believe.

The case was one in which Greenpeace activists painted words on the chimney of a coal-fired power plant.  The damage was 35,000 British pounds.  That isn't a ton of pounds, but that is not the point.  The defense was that Greenpeace was justified doing this damage to the power plant to prevent greater damage caused by climate change brought about by burning fossil fuels, in this case coal.  They cited the Criminal Damage Act of 1971 which allows damage to a property to prevent even greater damage, such as breaking down the door of a burning house to put out a fire or saving people trapped inside.

The jury bought the defense, and the accused were found not-guilty.  This means that a precedent has been set for future damage.  Talk about a slippery slope.  Here are some of the things you may now be able to do under this Act...

Kill Cows at will- After all, Cows are prodigious methane producers (just take a whiff when you drive by).  Methane is a known greenhouse gas and is likely part of the reason the globe may be warming... if you believe it is warming.

Pour Miracle-Grow on anybody's bushes, shrubs, or gardens- We know plants use up carbon dioxide, so more plants will help curb the amount of CO2 sitting in our environment.

Smash up cars- Ah, the biggest polluters.  Go ahead, destroy your neighbors SUV.  It undoubtedly is adding tons of toxic fumes to the atmosphere.  While you are at it, just dump out all the motor oil you can find at gas stations.  You might even want to just pull the hoses out of the gas pumps.

Put out everybody's cigarettes- You see someone smoking, put it out.  Just take it out of their mouth and squish it.  You'll stop the toxic smoke from entering people's lungs, and save health care dollars. 

Now, what can you do to other people?  Aren't they all spewing carbon dioxide from their mouths, too?

Exaggeration?  Perhaps.  Slippery slope?  Undoubtedly.

Did I mention the expert witness for the defense was Professor Richard Hanson of NASA fame.  Professor Hansen is credited with first alerting the world to the global warming threat in June 1988 with testimony to a US senate committee in Washington.  He testified that emissions of CO2 from Kings-north would damage property through the effects of the climate change they would help to cause.

 

I've posted below a press release from NOAA.  Despite much evidence to the contrary, NOAA continues to beat the global warming drum.  So, what is the truth?  Well, the only real truth is that climate changes all the time.  I asked a climate scientist his take on what NOAA is saying. I kept his name out of it for now, so you'll just have to trust me on this.  His response...

"NOAA is complicit in this hoax. The NCDC removed the urbanization adjustment in their data and as a result their US and global data is elevated relative to the real warm years beck in the 1930s. They promote how warm it is even as satellites show it differently. Example for June NASA satellite data said the globe was 9th coldest in 29 years, NOAA had it the 7th or 8th warmest in 113 years. Both can't be right. I trust the satellites." So, obviously, this debate continues, and it is bitter.  Any thoughts on this? By the way, locally, August was certainly below normal, but we are talking about GLOBAL climate, so we can't go by that. 

 

 

NOAA: Global Summer Temperature Was Ninth Warmest
Tenth Warmest August Since Records Began

 

 

The combined global average land and ocean surface temperature for summer 2008 was the ninth warmest since records began in 1880, and this August was the tenth warmest, according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

 

 

Summer (June – August) Highlights

 

 

• The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for summer 2008 was 0.85 degrees F (0.47 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C).

   

 

• Separately, the global land surface temperature for the summer was 1.12 degrees F (0.62 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 56.9 degrees F (13.8 degrees C).

   

 

• The global ocean surface temperature for summer ranked ninth warmest on record and was 0.74 degrees F (0.41 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 61.5 degrees F (16.4 degrees C).

   

 

August Highlights

 

 

• The August 2008 combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.79 degrees F (0.44 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C) and tied with 1995 for the tenth warmest August on record.

   

 

• The global land surface temperature for August was 0.88 degrees F (0.49 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 56.9 degrees F (13.8 degrees C).

   

 

• The global ocean surface temperature for August was 0.77 degrees F (0.43 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 61.4 degrees F (16.4 degrees C), which tied for seventh warmest August with 2001.

 

Other Highlights

 

 

• El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions continued in August, and are expected to last through the end of 2008, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

 

• Arctic sea ice extent at the end of August was at its second lowest extent on record according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice declined by a record rate in August, decreasing by 950,000 square miles (2.47 million square kilometers) between Aug. 1 and Sept. 3. The current extent is 800,000 square miles (2.08 million square kilometers) below the 1979-2000 average.

 

• Tropical Storm Fay struck the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands between August 15 - 17, claiming 23 lives across the Caribbean. Hurricane Gustav affected the same countries August 24 – 31, claiming an estimated 95 lives in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica. Tropical Storm Kammuri struck southern China on August 6, bringing torrential rains to Hong Kong. Rain from Kammuri caused 120 deaths in northern Vietnam. On Aug. 20, Typhoon Nuri made landfall in the Philippines and killed seven people.

   

 

• In southern India, heavy monsoon rains killed 99 people, while in northern India flash flooding claimed 74 lives and left about 50,000 people homeless. Varanasi, India received 11.5 inches (292.1 mm) of rain in just 24 hours. Torrential downpours claimed 27 lives in northwestern Pakistan during the first week of August. In Laos, heavy monsoon rains raised the Mekong River to its highest recorded level of 44.88 feet (13.68 m). Also in August, extensive flooding affected China, Japan, Mexico, and Great Britain.

   

 

• On Aug. 17, Eyre in Western Australia registered a low temperature of -7.2 degrees C (19 degrees F), setting the record for the all-time lowest temperature for that Australian state, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

   

 

• Severe storms over northern France on Aug. 4 spawned a tornado that killed three people in the town of Hautmont. Another tornado hit Mykanów, Poland, on Aug. 15, killing three and injuring 37.

   

 

• Moderate-to-severe drought impacted northern parts of China during August, according to the Beijing Climate Center. Below-average August rainfall over parts of eastern and southern Australia worsened drought conditions in those areas. Parts of southwest Australia experienced their lowest August rainfall since records began there in 1900.

   

If you are a regular for my weather forecast segments, you likely have heard me say that if you invite me to your event, you'll have fine weather.  It always seems to work out when I say it.  Of course, I wouldn't say it if I wasn't confident the forecast was for good weather.  This past Sunday tested this claim.

My new nephew's baptism was scheduled for 12:30 Sunday afternoon in southern Rhode Island.  My sister-in-law called the day before to ask if they should get a canopy.  They'd have to rent one, so money was on the line.  I told her it would rain overnight, but they would be fine for the baptism.  With all the people coming, she was happy they could set up outside.  Well, I awakened Sunday morning to rain.  A.J. had said on the newscast Saturday night that everything was moving slower.  On the way to Rhode Island, it poured.  When we got to around Warwick, RI on I95, the fog took over along with some drizzle.  Outwardly, I was confident... inside, not so much.  When we arrived at the church at 12:30, it was still cloudy, but we had driven out of the fog.  The rain had stopped.  We left the church an hour later... still no rain.  It held off for the entire event.  A blessing for little David, or my self-proclaimed good luck invitation forecast?  Either way, it all worked out.

I never had a doubt.  Make sure you invite me to your events coming up.  Enjoy this week.  It will be beautiful.

It is September 10th, the eve of the 7th anniversary of the most tragic day in America.  I certainly do not want to retell what happened.  We all know, and we all cried.  Undoubtedly, you remember where you were, but do you remember the day?  Specifically, do you remember how the weather was that day?  This is not a question that should elicit a "who cares what the weather was" response.  Rather, you should know that the diabolical plot likely needed a day like it was for it to be carried out. 

It was a crisp morning.  The sky was deep blue, without a cloud in it.  The sun was shining brightly.  Visibility for pilots would have been unlimited, only limited by the capability of the human eye.  There were no weather obstacles to get the madmen to their destination on the ground to carry out what they would do in the air.  In the air, there was no strong wind, no fog, no clouds, no precipitation... perfect flying weather.  That would be extra important for novice pilots. 

There is no way to know for sure if the attackers were really paying attention to forecasts to coordinate the plan.  We do know, however, that weather forecasting plays an intrical role in war strategy.  When I was a senior at Cornell, we were heavily recruited by the Air Force as it was during the first Gulf War.  You can read about how the weather forecast played a critical role in the D-Day invasin in World War 2.  Whether they were waiting for it or not, the attackers on September 11th, 2001, had perfect weather to do what they planned to do.

Tomorrow, September 11th, 2008, will be eerily similar to that day 7 years ago.  It'll be a crisp sunlit morning, with blue, cloudless skies.  It'll be another reminder to me of what happened.

Not that I needed it.

 

kpl

This will be of no comfort to those of you with flooded basements, living on damaged streets, or in homes with damage from falling branches, but Hanna did just what she was supposed to.

My previous blog layed out what we should see.  You can compare, but here is what I saw in my town...

Heavy showers while I slept Friday night were gone by the time I was up Saturday, which was about 9 a.m.  Took my son to soccer for 11:45.  The humidity was stifling and the sun kept popping out, making it unbearable.  I was actually sweating just sitting and watching.  My poor little guy was drenched in sweat.  Back home, we were preparing for a pool party, which would have become an indoor party if the storm did not hold off.  We kept getting showers throughout the afternoon, but we didn't mind since we were already wet from the pool.  At least the men and children were wet.  What is it with women not going swimming?  It was brutally humid.  Take a dip!  Instead, they go inside and chat.  FUN!  I digress.  I grilled in the pouring rain late in the day, then it was back to the pool, also in the pouring rain.  We made it a memorable night, and survived Hanna.  The storm dropped the heaviest rain to the northwest of the track, which is very typical of tropical storms transitioning to extra tropical in the mid latitudes.  The strongest winds were mostly to the southeast of the track, and mostly barely tropical storm strength.  Again, as we'd expect with a storm like this. 

All of this underscores how difficult it is to have a tropical storm maintain its strength up here.  One will one day, but not this one.  Good luck to all of you who have to deal with flooding, and remember the damage from this fairly weak storm.  When a hurricane does come, it will be a valuable lesson.

kpl

As I write this Thursday night, Hanna is near the northern Bahamas, on its way to the southeast coast of our country.  It looks like the Carolinas for this storm, possibly as a minimal hurricane.  Once inland, Hanna will weaken and pick up speed.  The current track forecast brings her up this way and through New England by Sunday lunchtime. 

Caution... a lot can change in the next couple of days.  This is a tropical system.  The rules go out the window with these.  We've seen tropical storms come through with wind and rain, as well as with nothing at all when they seem to evaporate right over us.  So, what will Hanna do?

I'm thinking we may see some showers Saturday way ahead of the system, but I also believe we'll see a little sun.  Saturday night will become humid as the tropical air races to the north.  If the storm does maintain its tropical status, we'll get a wind-driven rain Saturday night.  If it doesn't, the heavy rain will shift to the north and west of the track. 

The other possibility is that Hanna goes back offshore in the mid-Atlantic region.  If that happens, it could actually pick up a little strength and bring us more wind. 

Make sure you follow this forecast closely.  If you have marine interestes, Friday is the day to take care of them just in case.  You can get the latest information right on our weather page, as well as during our newscasts.

Have a great weekend.

kpl

I held off on writing more about Gustav until now.  After all, it was the day after that the levees broke after Katrina, when the storm had moved away and the sun was out.  That did not happen this time.  Thank goodness.  There was still damage, mostly from the wind.  Water did slosh over some of the levees.  Still, the storm surge was greater closer to the center of Gustav, some 70-80 miles southwest of New Orleans.  This was very close to where the National Hurricane Center had said it would hit. 

Still, we here all about how New Orleans fared much better this time, that Gustav went easy on the Big Easy.  This storm wasn't as bad as feared, reports say.

Tell that to people in Houma or Morgan City Louisiana.  Sure, there aren't nearly as many people where this storm came ashore, but aren't they just as much in need of our support.  I am happy for New Orleans in the wake of Katrina, but don't forget those families devastated by this storm. 

In the meantime, three other storms have formed in the tropics.  The first threat is Hanna.  She is in the southern Bahamas, poised to move northward toward the east coast of the U.S.  We'll be tracking her, as well as Ike and Josephine behind her. 

Stay tuned...

kpl