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A Popular Fantasy
Jun 3, 2008 | 6:52 AM PST
Category:
Political
Today is the last two contests in the Democratic Party, voters in Montana and South Dakota head to the voting booths to cast the final ballots for their choice to be the nominee of the Democratic Party. It is largely expected that by either tonight or tomorrow morning, Barack Obama will have the number of delegates to make official what has been known since the end of February.
Senator Clinton, in one last ditch effort to win over superdelegates to her candidacy, has made the claim since her victory in Puerto Rico, that she has clearly won the popular vote in the Democratic Party. According to Clinton, the delegate leader and the popular vote leader have never been different. (Actually they have, but I'm thinking Democrats are hoping this isn't a repeat of 1972) Her argument is a not so subtle allusion to the 2000 Presidential race, where one man, Al Gore won the popular vote, but another man, George W. Bush, came out ahead in what really mattered, the electoral college. Her message to the Democratic Party is "look what happened when the guy who didn't win the popular vote became President, he was a complete disaster (in the opinion of Democrats and like minded liberals) that could happen here if you don't give me the nomination." It would be a compelling case.....if it were only true.
Apparently, the Clinton campaign decided that in order to make this argument, they needed to invent their own type of math. In order to show that she was indeed ahead in the popular vote, Clinton counts Michigan, which even the Michigan Democratic Party says the results are meaningless and invalid, but gives none of the Uncommitted vote to Obama. She doesn't count any of the caucus states that didn't report popular vote totals (all states that Obama won), she counts Puerto Rico, which doesn't have a say in the general election, but doesn't count Guam or the U.S. Virgin Islands (territories that Obama won). Her mantra as of late "count every vote" should really be extended to reflect what she really means, Count every vote.......for me.
Here is a great ad by Jim Ogonowski, running to unseat Democrat John Kerry in the 2008 Massachusetts Senate race.
Romney's decision
Feb 6, 2008 | 9:52 AM PST
Category:
Political
On this morning's Let it Rip segment, and the poll question on myfoxboston ask, is it time for Gov. Romney to call it quits? This is of course not the first time this question has been asked regarding Mitt's campaign. Many individuals (myself included) were questioning whether or not Romney should have packed it in after the twin losses of Iowa and New Hampshire. As it turned out, reports of the Romney campaign's demise were greatly exagerated, as Romney did pick up a couple of victories in Michigan and Nevada.
However, a day after Super Tuesday where Romney underperformed in races across the country, particularly in the South and in California, the question once again needs to be raised. While Romney performed well in caucus states like Colorado, Minnesota, and North Dakota, he performed poorly in primary states like California, Missouri, and Georgia. Given how West Virginia went down yesterday, it is clear that the only way Romney could win the nomination would be to go into the Republican Convention with the delegates required to secure the nomination. (1,191 I believe) There is absolutely no way Romney could ever win a brokered convention. If the Republicans go into St. Paul without a candidate having secured the 1,191 delegates needed, it is a near certainty that McCain and Huckabee will cut a deal to put McCain over the top.
This is a decision that only Romney can make. Romney has often been ridiculed by people because he has essentially self-financed his campaign, but the flip side of that is because Romney has poured millions of his own dollars into this campaign, he is probably hesitant to get out of the race. According to Fox 25, Romney is at best 270 delegates behind Mccain, he is closer to Huckabee than he is to John McCain. The decision to exit a Presidential race, much like the decision to enter one is surely a difficult one to make, and it is not made lightly. If Romney honestly believes that a McCain nomination would be bad for the Republican party, then he should stay in the race, otherwise I think he has to look long and hard about his prospects for actually winning the GOP nomination.
The best debate yet
Jan 6, 2008 | 2:19 PM PST
Category:
Political
Watching last night's republican debate, two things came to my mind. Did Mitt Romney at some point in his life run over the dogs of all the other Republican presidential candidates? Mitt got pummeled from virtually all of the candidates on stage that night. It seemed like all the other candidates got together and agreed to turn their political howitzers on Romney last night, to do their best to ensure that Romney doesn't win in New Hampshire which if he doesn't all but ends his candidacy.
The second thing that came to my mind was that last night's debate was probably one of the best of the whole campaign thus far. The moderator by and large stayed on the sidelines, only jumping in to guide the discussion when it ventured into the weeds. The candidates were able to engage each other directly, challenge each other on their positions and past statements.
All in all, I think Romney did not have a good night, but it probably was going to be tough for him given that the other campaigns have seemed to make it their mission to destroy Mitt's candidacy. He was incorrect, when he said that he never favored a timed withdrawal from Iraq McCain played it pretty safe last night, he was acting like he was the front runner in New Hampshire. If I had to pick a winner, I'd have to go with Fred Thompson, last night he came across as the conservative standard bearer of the Republican party.
Wow, I can't believe it's been 45 days since I last wrote a blog. I figured with about 5 weeks to go before the Iowa Caucuses (which is just insanely early in my opinion) I figured I'd write a little something about the Republican contest for the nomination. Why would I, someone who has professed his strong dislike for President Bush and eagerly supported one Deval Patrick, write about the Republican race for President? For two reasons, first and foremost it seems all but certain that Hillary Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee. It looked a little dicey a few weeks ago after her horrible debate performance, but she rebounded nicely (for her at least) the next debate and couple that with Obama doing terrible and she seems to have regained her footing in the race. With Clinton as the likely nominee I am much more inclined to support the Republican in the race, unless of course Rudy G. wins the nomination. ( I know that probably infuriates you Graham, but if he gets the nod, that would be two morally bankrupt politicians representing the major parties, I'll vote third-party if that is the case.) Secondly, when I registered to vote at the age of 18, I originally registered as a Republican and in fact voted for G.W. Bush in '04, but the GOP's complete lack of spending disciplne and the mishandling of the war in Iraq for sometime lead me to a general dissatisfaction with the direction the party was heading. But alas, over the past year I have started to drift more to my conservative/libertarian roots and that is why the Republican field interests me much more than the Democratic side. So without further ado, here are my thoughts on the Republican race, roughly five weeks out from the first contests.
The mainstream media really wants to create a narrative of this being a two man race, when right now it is anything but a two man race. Maybe it is because their feeble minds can't grasp the idea that anywhere from 3 to 5 candidates have a legitimate shot at capturing the nomination. (Rudy, Romney, Huckabee, McCain, and Thompson, in no particular order) The media wants to make it about Rudy vs. someone else, when I think the dynamic is much more complicated than that. A lot of people on this site seem to like Mitt Romney and it isn't difficult to see why. However I think that his campaign may have peaked a tad to soon. Two or three weeks ago Mitt seemed to be headed on the right road to victory, with solid leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, competitive in South Carolina and doing well in his home state of Michigan. Romney was (and still may be) the safe bet to win the nomination. However, Romney's entire campaign strategy has been to win the first two contests and build momentum (and money) towards South Carolina and the rest of the contests, a strategy that has work well for many candidates in the past.
However, over the past week who was been coming on strong the last couple of weeks in the first in the nation contest of Iowa? The tortoise like Mike Huckabee (slow and steady wins the race). In a couple recent polls, Huckabee has been running either dead even or slightly behind Romney. Huckabee is the one true social conservative who was never a social libertarian (see: Romney) and he also has a hint of economic populism in his stump speech (He has stated that the Republican party needs to stop being the "party of plutocrats", and on more than one occasion bemoaned the high salaries of corporate execs) that will resonate with the electorate at large if, and that is an enormous if, he takes the nomination.
If Huckabee wins in Iowa, Romney is finished, done, dead in the water, however you want to put it Romney's candidacy would effectively be over. If Huckabee takes out Romney in Iowa, the candidate that gets helped the most (besides the Huckster) is Rudy Giuliani. Rudy's campaign has to be loving the fact that Huckabee is surging in Iowa because Romney is without a doubt Giuliani's biggest obstacle to the nomination right now. Should the aforementioned happen, it is entirely plausible that John McCain, left for dead months ago by the media could end up taking New Hampshire, his libertarian/maverick style plays much better in New Hampshire than Huckabee's more socially conservative philosophy. Then you roll into South Carolina, which would be completely up for grabs for either Huckabee, Thompson (his candidacy DEPENDS on winning southern states), and McCain. (I do not believe Rudy has been actively campaigning here, choosing instead to make Florida is first main battle). If McCain or Huckabee win South Carolina, then it really will be a two main race between Rudy and one of the above-mentioned candidates.
If I were a betting man, I'd bet heavily on Mike Huckabee taking the Republican nomination. Mitt has peaked already in my view and I expect to see his support decline over the coming weeks. Rudy Giuliani is a walking time-bomb whose candidacy could blow up in the Republicans face any moment. If he were to win the nomination, the campaign between Rudy and Clinton would almost certainly be an absolute bloodbath. It would make 2004 look like child's play in the negativity and viciousness that would be flying from both campaigns. A Huckabee nomination would pose a difficult challenge to Clinton. Huckabee is everything that Clinton is not in terms of personality. He comes across as a genuine down to earth nice guy, and when he speaks his arguments and positions sound rather reasonable even if you disagree with him. You come across thinking "Wow, he seems like a decent guy". I really think Mike Huckabee could take down Hillary Clinton in 2008. Of course, if a certain someone who is currently a Republican candidate for President decides to mount a third-party bid (*cough Ron Paul *cough) then the prospect of a Republican keeping the White House for a third consecutive term get even dicier than they are now.
